EX-99.1
Published on
![]() Exhibit 99.1
PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL, INC. 2015
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
CONFERENCE CALL
PRESENTATION DECEMBER 11, 2014 |
![]() DELIVERING SUPERIOR VALUE
2
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call
Financial
Strength
Strong Core
Businesses
Top-Tier
ROE
Superior Value
Proposition for
Customers,
Creditors, and
Investors |
![]() ![]() ![]() RETURN ON EQUITY 3
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call
10.1%
10.2%
11.9%
11.8%
15.2%
16.2%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
YTD 9/30/14
2015
1)
ROE based on after-tax adjusted operating income (AOI) excluding market driven
and discrete items as disclosed in company earnings releases; average attributed
equity excludes accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) and the impact
of foreign currency exchange rate remeasurement. 2009-2014 reflects results for
Financial Services Businesses; long-term objective for 2015 and thereafter
represents Prudential Financial, Inc. Long-term
ROE
objective of
13% to 14%
over cycle
Annualized
(1) |
![]() ![]() ![]() 2015
Tailwinds
Greater financial flexibility
–
Business momentum driving solid
capital generation
–
Enhanced by Closed Block
restructuring
Headwinds
Assumed return to average
expectations of 2014 Tailwinds
Sustained low interest rate environment
Weaker Yen
Multi-year investment in technology,
systems and infrastructure
2014
Tailwinds
Equity markets
Strong general account non-coupon
investment income
Favorable mortality experience
Favorable case experience in
Retirement
Headwinds
Sustained low interest rate
environment
TAILWINDS AND HEADWINDS
4
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call |
![]() 2015 OUTLOOK 5
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call
Key Assumptions & Considerations:
S&P 500 ends 2014 at
2,020 and grows 6% annually; ending 2015 at 2,144
U.S. Dollar @ 91 Yen and 1,120 Won
Interest rates based on averaging of forward yield curves
–
10 Year U.S. Treasury rises to 2.97% by end of 2015
Effective Tax Rate ~27%
Capital deployment supported by:
–
Increasing ratio of cash flow to adjusted operating income
–
Benefit of Closed Block restructuring
Year end 2015 leverage ratio within 25% target |
![]() ![]() ![]() $7.09
$7.51
$9.25
2015 EARNINGS
GUIDANCE 6
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call
2015
EPS
Guidance
(3)
$9.60 -
$10.10
2014
9 Months
Annualized
Capital
Deployment
Core
Growth
Market
Factors
1)
As disclosed in company earnings releases.
2)
Primarily general account non-coupon investment income above average
expectations, favorable mortality and Retirement case experience. 3)
Excludes impact of market unlockings which would be regarded as "market driven
and discrete items" and Hartford integration costs. 3Q 2014
YTD Results
After-Tax
AOI Basis
3Q 2014
YTD Baseline
Results
Run Rate
Adjustment
Items
(2)
Market Driven
and Discrete
Items
(1) |
![]() EQUITY MARKET AND INTEREST RATE SENSITIVITY OF EARNINGS
7
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call
1)
Equity market impact represents the impact on results from assumed change in market
value of equity investments underlying account values, and interest rate
impact represents the impact on results from assumed parallel shift of yield curve,
in each case occurring at the beginning of the year and followed by the assumed
equity market appreciation and trajectory of interest rates as indicated under
"2015 Outlook.” AOI basis, excluding impact of market unlockings
and potential impact on returns from general account non-coupon
investments. Impact on results may not be linear and may vary from indicated sensitivities at thresholds
greater than those indicated.
Equity Market
Impact
Interest Rate
Impact
+/-10%
+/-100 bps
Estimated Impact to Earnings Per Share
(1)
~$0.30
~$0.20 |
![]() PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL, INC. CAPITAL
8
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call
1)
Based on targeted Risk Based Capital (RBC) ratio of 400% for Prudential Insurance
and equivalent levels of capital at other insurance operating entities.
2)
For the purposes of calculating this ratio, PFI’s outstanding hybrid
securities are considered 25% equity and 75% debt. Excludes the impact on GAAP equity
from
foreign
currency
exchange
rate
remeasurement,
non-performance
risk
(net
of
deferred
policy
acquisition
costs),
and
AOCI.
3)
The
inclusion
of
RBC
measures
is
intended
solely
for
the
information
of
investors
and
is
not
intended
for
the
purpose
of
ranking
any
insurance
company
or
for
use
in
connection
with
any
marketing,
advertising
or
promotional
activities.
4)
Based on Japanese statutory accounting and risk measurement standards.
5)
Gibraltar Life consolidated basis. |
![]() KEY TAKEAWAYS 9
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call
Business mix and solid fundamentals continue to produce
attractive financial profile
Solid EPS growth despite market and other headwinds
Top-tier ROE: long-term target of 13% to 14% over cycle
Greater financial flexibility resulting from:
–
Business momentum driving solid capital generation
–
Increasing ratio of cash flow to adjusted operating income
–
Closed Block restructuring |
![]() QUESTIONS AND QUESTIONS AND
ANSWERS
ANSWERS
DECEMBER 11, 2014
DECEMBER 11, 2014
PRUDENTIAL FINANCIAL, INC. 2015
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
CONFERENCE CALL
PRESENTATION |
![]() FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
11
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call
Certain
of
the
statements
included
in
this
presentation
constitute
forward-looking
statements
within
the
meaning
of
the
U.
S.
Private
Securities
Litigation
Reform
Act
of
1995.
Words
such
as
“expects,”
“believes,”
“anticipates,”
“includes,”
“plans,”
“assumes,”
“estimates,”
“projects,”
“intends,”
“should,”
“will,”
“shall”
or
variations
of
such
words
are
generally
part
of
forward-looking
statements.
Forward-looking
statements
are
made
based
on
management’s
current
expectations
and
beliefs
concerning
future
developments
and
their
potential
effects
upon
Prudential
Financial,
Inc.
and
its
subsidiaries.
There
can
be
no
assurance
that
future
developments
affecting
Prudential
Financial,
Inc.
and
its
subsidiaries
will
be
those
anticipated
by
management.
These
forward-looking
statements
are
not
a
guarantee
of
future
performance
and
involve
risks
and
uncertainties,
and
there
are
certain
important
factors
that
could
cause
actual
results
to
differ,
possibly
materially,
from
expectations
or
estimates
reflected
in
such
forward-looking
statements,
including,
among
others:
(1)
general
economic,
market
and
political
conditions,
including
the
performance
and
fluctuations
of
fixed
income,
equity,
real
estate
and
other
financial
markets;
(2)
the
availability
and
cost
of
additional
debt
or
equity
capital
or
external
financing
for
our
operations;
(3)
interest
rate
fluctuations
or
prolonged
periods
of
low
interest
rates;
(4)
the
degree
to
which
we
choose
not
to
hedge
risks,
or
the
potential
ineffectiveness
or
insufficiency
of
hedging
or
risk
management
strategies
we
do
implement;
(6)
reestimates
of
our
reserves
for
future
policy
benefits
and
claims;
(7)
differences
between
actual
experience
regarding
mortality,
longevity,
morbidity,
persistency,
utilization,
surrender
experience,
interest
rates
or
market
returns
and
the
assumptions
we
use
in
pricing
our
products,
establishing
liabilities
and
reserves
or
for
other
purposes;
(8)
changes
in
our
assumptions
related
to
deferred
policy
acquisition
costs,
value
of
business
acquired
or
goodwill;
(9)
changes
in
assumptions
for
our
pension
and
other
postretirement
benefit
plans;
(10)
changes
in
our
financial
strength
or
credit
ratings;
(11)
statutory
reserve
requirements
associated
with
term
and
universal
life
insurance
policies
under
Regulation
XXX
and
Guideline
AXXX;
(12)
investment
losses,
defaults
and
counterparty
non-
performance;
(13)
competition
in
our
product
lines
and
for
personnel;
(14)
difficulties
in
marketing
and
distributing
products
through
current
or
future
distribution
channels;
(15)
changes
in
tax
law;
(16)
economic,
political,
currency
and
other
risks
relating
to
our
international
operations;
(17)
fluctuations
in
foreign
currency
exchange
rates
and
foreign
securities
markets;
(18)
regulatory
or
legislative
changes,
including
the
Dodd-Frank
Wall
Street
Reform
and
Consumer
Protection
Act;
(19)
inability
to
protect
our
intellectual
property
rights
or
claims
of
infringement
of
the
intellectual
property
rights
of
others;
(20)
adverse
determinations
in
litigation
or
regulatory
matters
and
our
exposure
to
contingent
liabilities,
including
in
connection
with
our
divestiture
or
winding
down
of
businesses;
(21)
domestic
or
international
military
actions,
natural
or
man-made
disasters
including
terrorist
activities
or
pandemic
disease,
or
other
events
resulting
in
catastrophic
loss
of
life;
(22)
ineffectiveness
of
risk
management
policies
and
procedures
in
identifying,
monitoring
and
managing
risks;
(23)
effects
of
acquisitions,
divestitures
and
restructurings,
including
possible
difficulties
in
integrating
and
realizing
projected
results
of
acquisitions;
(24)
interruption
in
telecommunication,
information
technology
or
other
operational
systems
or
failure
to
maintain
the
security,
confidentiality
or
privacy
of
sensitive
data
on
such
systems;
(25)
changes
in
statutory
or
U.S.
GAAP
accounting
principles,
practices
or
policies;
(26)
Prudential
Financial,
Inc.’s
primary
reliance,
as
a
holding
company,
on
dividends
or
distributions
from
its
subsidiaries
to
meet
debt
payment
obligations
and
the
ability
of
the
subsidiaries
to
pay
such
dividends
or
distributions
in
light
of
our
ratings
objectives
and/or
applicable
regulatory
restrictions;
and
(27)
risks
due
to
the
lack
of
legal
separation
between
our
Closed
Block
and
our
other
businesses.
Prudential
Financial,
Inc.
does
not
intend,
and
is
under
no
obligation,
to
update
any
particular
forward-looking
statement
included
in
this
presentation.
See “Risk Factors”
included in Prudential Financial, Inc.’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for
discussion of certain risks relating to our businesses and investment in our
securities. Prudential Financial, Inc. of the United States is not affiliated
with Prudential PLC which is headquartered in the United Kingdom. |
![]() NON–GAAP MEASURE
12
This
presentation
includes
references
to
“adjusted
operating
income.”
Adjusted
operating
income
is
a
non-GAAP
measure
of
our
performance.
Adjusted
operating
income
excludes
“Realized
investment
gains
(losses),
net,”
as
adjusted,
and
related
charges
and
adjustments.
A
significant
element
of
realized
investment
gains
and
losses
are
impairments
and
credit-related
and
interest
rate-related
gains
and
losses.
Impairments
and
losses
from
sales
of
credit-
impaired
securities,
the
timing
of
which
depends
largely
on
market
credit
cycles,
can
vary
considerably
across
periods.
The
timing
of
other
sales
that
would
result
in
gains
or
losses,
such
as
interest
rate-related
gains
or
losses,
is
largely
subject
to
our
discretion
and
influenced
by
market
opportunities
as
well
as
our
tax
and
capital
profile.
Realized
investment
gains
(losses)
within
certain
of
our
businesses
for
which
such
gains
(losses)
are
a
principal
source
of
earnings,
and
those
associated
with
terminating
hedges
of
foreign
currency
earnings
and
current
period
yield
adjustments
are
included
in
adjusted
operating
income.
Adjusted
operating
income
excludes
realized
investment
gains
and
losses
from
products
that
contain
embedded
derivatives,
and
from
associated
derivative
portfolios
that
are
part
of
a
hedging
program
related
to
the
risk
of
those
products.
Adjusted
operating
income
also
excludes
gains
and
losses
from
changes
in
value
of
certain
assets
and
liabilities
relating
to
foreign
currency
exchange
movements
that
have
been
economically
hedged
or
considered part of our capital funding strategies for our international
subsidiaries, as well as gains and losses on certain investments that are classified
as
other
trading
account
assets.
Adjusted
operating
income
also
excludes
investment
gains
and
losses
on
trading
account
assets
supporting
insurance
liabilities
and
changes
in
experience-rated
contractholder
liabilities
due
to
asset
value
changes,
because
these
recorded
changes
in
asset
and
liability
values
are
expected
to
ultimately
accrue
to
contractholders.
Trends
in
the
underlying
profitability
of
our
businesses
can
be
more
clearly
identified
without
the
fluctuating
effects
of
these
transactions.
In
addition,
adjusted
operating
income
excludes
the
results
of
divested
businesses,
which
are
not
relevant
to
our
ongoing
operations.
Discontinued
operations,
which
are
presented
as
a
separate
component
of
net
income
under
GAAP,
are
also
excluded
from
adjusted
operating
income.
For
periods
prior
to
the
first
quarter
of
2015,
adjusted
operating
income
has
been
reported
for
our
Financial
Services
Businesses,
and
accordingly,
does
not
include
the
results
of
the
Closed
Block
Business.
Following
the
closing
of
the
Class
B
Stock
Repurchase
described
in
the
Company’s
Current
Report
on
Form
8-K
dated
December
2,
2014,
and
the
resulting
elimination
of
the
distinction
between
the
Financial
Services
Businesses
and
the
Closed
Block
Business,
the
Closed
Block
will
be
reported
as
a
separate
segment
and
treated
as
a
divested
business,
and
as
such
its
results
will
be
excluded
from
adjusted
operating
income.
We
believe
that
the
presentation
of
adjusted
operating
income
as
we
measure
it
for
management
purposes
enhances
the
understanding
of
our
results
of
operations
by
highlighting
the
results
from
ongoing
operations
and
the
underlying
profitability
of
our
businesses.
However,
adjusted
operating
income
is
not
a
substitute
for
income
determined
in
accordance
with
GAAP,
and
the
adjustments
made
to
derive
adjusted
operating
income
are
important
to
an
understanding
of
our
overall
results
of
operations.
For
additional
information
about
adjusted
operating
income
and
the
comparable
GAAP
measure,
including
a
reconciliation
between
the
two,
please
refer
to
our
Annual
Report
on
Form
10-K
for
the
year
ended
December
31,
2013
and
subsequent
Quarterly
Reports
on
Form
10-Q.
Additional
historical
information
relating
to
our
financial
performance
is
located
on
our
Web
site
at
www.investor.prudential.com.
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call |
![]() RECONCILIATION BETWEEN AOI EARNINGS PER SHARE AND
THE COMPARABLE
GAAP
MEASURE
13
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call
Earnings per share of Common Stock (diluted):
Financial Services Businesses after-tax adjusted operating income
7.09
Reconciling items:
Realized investment losses, net, and related charges and
adjustments (3.02)
Investment gains
(losses) on trading account assets supporting insurance liabilities, net 0.42
Change in
experience-rated contractholder liabilities due to asset value changes (0.30)
Divested
businesses 0.24
Difference in
earnings allocated to participating unvested share-based payment awards 0.01
Total reconciling items, before income taxes (2.65)
Income taxes, not
applicable to adjusted operating income (1.35)
Total reconciling items, after income
taxes (1.30)
Income (loss) from continuing operations (after-tax) of
Financial Services Businesses attributable to Prudential Financial, Inc.
5.79
Income (loss) from discontinued operations, net of
taxes 0.01
Net income (loss) of Financial Services Businesses
attributable to Prudential Financial, Inc.
5.80
YTD
September 30,
2014
$
$ |
![]() RECONCILIATION FOR EARNINGS PER SHARE EXCLUDING MARKET DRIVEN
AND DISCRETE ITEMS (1)
14
2015 Financial Outlook Conference Call
1)
As disclosed in company earnings releases.
2)
Includes adjustments to reflect updated estimates of profitability based on market
performance in relation to our assumptions, as well as annual reviews of actuarial
assumptions and refinement of reserves, deferred policy acquisition and other
costs. After-Tax Adjusted Operating Income basis:
Earnings Per Share
7.09
$
Reconciling items:
Unlockings and experience true-ups
(2)
(0.39)
Integration costs for Hartford Life acquisition
(0.03)
Sub-total
(0.42)
Earnings Per Share -
excluding market driven and
discrete items
7.51
$
YTD
September 30,
2014 |



















